I was going to post about how I saw the result, but I think Pharyngula sums it up nicely, particularly on the fear angle. What I’m most surprised by is how relatively calm I am about it. I don’t know if it’s a result of having grown up watching the Labour Party blow two golden chances, but right now while the election is disappointing, it’s ultimately just one of those things (at least I get my tax cut, right?) In contrast the fact that 11 states decided that homophobia should be enshrined in their state constitutions is a much bigger deal for me. Fear is one thing – while I think it’s misdirected in this case, it’s an understandable reaction. But hate?

C-SPAN has a great map showing vote tallys as they come in. Most of the networks and websites I can find are overly complicated (or I’m overly simple), but this one is just the facts.

In the spirit of electoral fun so common nowadays, I thought I’d make my prediction for who will win tomorrow. Before I do that, however, I wanted to explain why I don’t care.

I think John Kerry is the better choice for President. Bush has many fine qualities, apparently, but seems to think that being strong and resolute will defeat terrorism. Personally I’d prefer someone who thinks that it’s more important to be doing the right thing, but that’s just me. On the economy I like Bush’s ideas about reducing taxes and limiting the size of government, but given his staggering inability to do the slightest thing about limiting government, or paying for tax cuts, I’ll take Kerry. On social programs I like that the president wants to turn over more things to the private sector, but I don’t think he gets the whole safety net thing, and I don’t like the funding of religious programs, I’d rather have Kerry’s plans. For all those reasons, and others, I think that Kerry is the best choice for the US. Not for the next 4 years, but for the next 20.

But here’s the catch – for the next 4 years, on the economy at least, I think Bush will be the best choice. I don’t think he had much to do with the downturn, and I don’t think he has much to do with the upturn (and yes, I think there is a real one in there somewhere). But neither do most Presidents. What he will do is cut taxes, and some of them will even be ones that I pay. Eventually that bill will come due, but not for the next 4 years.

So in the short term Bush = good, in the long term Kerry = good. And that’s the key to why I don’t care. I don’t have specific plans, but as someone brought up in the UK the chances are I won’t be here in 20 years time. So the moral, community-minded part of me wants to do the right thing, while the enlightened self-interest part of me will take the money and run. Perhaps I should say that I do care, I just care equally for either outcome.

So, to the prediction. I didn’t go so far as to work out all the permutations, but I’m guessing Kerry by single-digits in the EV (i.e. 270-280), low single-digits in the popular vote. If there’s going to be a surprise, I think it will be 300+ EVs for Kerry, but I wouldn’t be much more surprised if it went Bush’s way by that much. In some ways I’d even welcome that, as at least we’d know. Unfortunately what we’d know is that last time Bush is what we got, whereas this time he’d be what we actually wanted.

A challenge for you. Watch this movie without thinking of the phrase “Frat Boy”. Warning: the image is work-safe, but you may find it offensive.

(Note, this video is apparently real, and was shot while Mr Bush was governor of the great state of Texas, i.e. after he’d stopped drinking and been saved. But not after his impulse control problems were addressed apparently)