Time for a rest

Two substantive posts in a row: it’s time for a day off. It started raining just as our boat pulled away from the dock this morning, and continued throughout the row and the ride to work. It struck me as a very British rain; typically here it seems that if it’s raining at all then it’s raining hard, whereas this was just a heavy drizzle that got everything wet but didn’t cause any real problems.

This reminded me of a little burst of homesickness I got yesterday while reading about the Shipping Forecast. Radio 4, one of the main radio stations in the UK, broadcasts a forecast specifically for shipping four times a day. It’s always done in a very concise, measured format that seems somehow very reassuring. Here’s a short made-up sample that sets the scene, though you can get the real thing here:

Viking North Utsire South Utsire Forties Southeast backing Northeast 4 or 5. Rain later. Good

Translated, that means in the sea areas North Utsire, South Utsire, Viking and Forties (roughly between the east coast of Scotland and Norway) there’s a 4 or 5 mile an hour wind blowing from the southeast, but moving counterclockwise to eventually blow from the northeast. It will rain later, but currently the weather is good (not, as you might guess, showing typical British pleasure in the fact that it will rain later).

Listen to the audio stream to get the full experience (and to relish a full-on British accent). You can also check Wikipedia for more details.

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Complacency

under the previous post there was some talk about the bigger picture of our current energy consumption habits, i.e. whether we can continue to live as we do in any number of ways, not just SUV-based. A little more on that…

Civilizations tend not to just run out. Sometimes they fail through stupidity, as when the Easter Islanders didn’t spot the flaw in their plan to chop down all the trees on their remote island. Sometimes they fail through natural disaster, combined in some cases by an understandable inability to adapt to the new conditions sufficiently quickly. And sometimes they fail through competition.

In the past competition has often been very direct; the various peoples of Central and South America certainly had internal problems, for example, but the Spanish and other invaders were very clear in their disregard for the existing culture, and were quite happy to kill their way across the continent. At best a particular culture could hope to become largely irrelevant, blending in to the new norm and perhaps influencing its future direction. This is what happened in Britain under the Romans and Normans, though in both cases the local cultur actually survived quite well (particularly under the Normans).

Today it seems unlikely for a particular culture to disappear completely, though we have numerous examples. The native peoples of America and Australia still exist, but the culture they represent is continuing to evaporate in the face of efforts to retain it. The same is true for dozens of smaller tribal groups across the world. On a much larger scale the former colonial powers of Britain, France, etc. have settled for now at a modest level of influence, perhaps greater than they inherently deserve, but still wildly diminished from their peaks.

In each of these instances competition was the undoing of the prevalent culture. Sometimes it was aided by internal strife, other times by a gross mismatch of technology, and in Britain’s case much of it rested simply on trying to do too much. But one of the common threads through most if not all of these declines is complacency; the assumption that there is something inherently ‘right’ about the current order.

That’s how I look at Nick’s comment about our current non-sustainable situation. The idea of sustainability is common in environmental circles, but really it’s an idea that applies everywhere. Whether it’s your bank account, your daily run or the well in your backyard, there’s only a certain amount you can do with a finite resource before it is exhausted. At the moment we’re getting a hint of that with energy, but that’s a trivial problem in the sense that we know what to do, and have the technology in place or in our grasp to achieve it. What we lack is the will to do anything, because our natural complacency overwhelms our capacity to see a bigger picture.

What is it that we’re being complacent about? That seems like another post…

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Gasoline

I’ve seen and heard a few things on the news over the last few days about gas prices. Now before you start to mentally skip ahead, this isn’t another post from a Brit about how Americans don’t know the meaning of expensive gas, when I was a lad we had to dig for oil by hand, etc. Though we did, and pay the oilfield owner for the privilege.

No, this is an entirely different sanctimonious whine. I think I’m starting to hear the first murmurings of a new message in the current reports, which is simply ‘get used to it’. It’s not uncommon for that to be mentioned whenever prices go up, but in the past it has been a temporary measure, pending new refining capacity, or a change in formulation for the winter, or some other future relief. But this time, I think, some people are realizing that this is a long-term reality.

That doesn’t mean that we’re stuck with $3 per gallon for the next decade. Prices could be higher than that, or lower, and will surely fluctuate. But the seemingly hard-wired expectation of something in the low $1 range (which is what it was when we got here 6 years ago) seems to be a forlorn hope. For all the additional capacity that exists, however much that may be, there exists even more demand from China, and to a lesser extent India, that could in time dwarf the US’s consumption.

Anything could happen in the next decade, of course, from the arrival of the much-touted hydrogen economy to the discovery that oil is generated inside the earth magically and can never run out. But based on what we know, I’d rather be a Prius dealership than a Hummer one at the moment.

Chipmunk update

I know you’ve been worrying, so the good news is that the chipmunk is gone. I’m afraid I took the coward’s way out and let it die before disposing of it, while not leaving it long enough to get stiff or anything.

Somewhat disturbingly, while clearing out the pipe I found the body of another one that had clearly died a long time ago. I don’t know if it was from the fist batch we had (I took two out, but there could well have been a third, or yet another incident. We hadn’t noticed any smell, so it’s hard to say what happened.

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